Sportsbooks pulled a major shocker this week. The favorite isn‘t Case Elliott, it‘s not Kyle Larson, nor Ryan Blaney, and not even Ross Chastain. Instead, in a shocking move the favorite is Martin Truex Jr.
Truex is given +600 odds, or an implied 14.3% chance to win the race. His biggest competition is expected to be Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, both given +700 odds or an implied 12.5% chance to win. Then it‘s Christopher Bell in 4th with +900 odds, or an implied 10% chance.
None of the usual favorites are given even a 10% chance to win the race. Elliott is given +1000 odds, or an implied 9.1% chance. Larson is given +1100 odds, or an implied 8.3% chance. Blaney is at +1200, or an implied 7.7% chance. Lastly, Chastain is given +1400 odds or an implied 6.7% chance to win the race. It‘s the first time this season that none of those four have either been the favorite or had at least a 10% chance to win.
Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “This is only the second time that Truex has been favored to win a race this season. The last time, the Blue-Emu 400, Truex finished 22nd. The eventual winner of the race, William Byron, was given +1200 odds despite an incredibly strong start to the season. Now with only a few races to go before the playoffs the books are back on Truex. Will it go the same way it went last time with a driver that‘s been better this season taking home the win? The books certainly don‘t like the usual favorites here.”
FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400 WINNER
DriverOddsImplied chanceMartin Truex Jr.+60014.3%Denny Hamlin+70012.5%Kyle Busch+70012.5%Christopher Bell+90010%Chase Elliott+10009.1%Kyle Larson+11008.3%Ryan Blaney+12007.7%Ross Chastain+14006.7%Kevin Harvick+15006.3%Joey Logano+16005.9%
— Oddschecker —